China’s PV market development 2016; Monthly Installations. June’s 11.3 GW exceeded the year of 2013 as well 2014
China appears to be on track of having installed up to 20 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the first half of 2016 according to information released by a representative from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) during an event Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd. (AECEA) attended on July 21st.
In this context, preliminary and therefore still unofficial statistics from China’s State Grid Corporation (SGCC) shows that at least 20.7 GW were installed in provinces within their jurisdiction during 1H/2016, AECEA notes.
Provinces like Shanxi (1.2 GW) and Hubei (approx. 800 MW) were amongst the most bullish so far this year. The latter is aiming at 1.2 GW for the entire year which is more than threefold compared to mere 350 MW installed in 2015.
June 2016 deployment figures topping the total installations of the entire year 2013 and 2014
Particularly striking is June 2016 which witnessed the deployment of up to 11.3 GW, thereby even topping the total installations of the entire year 2013 (10.95 GW) and 2014 (10.60 GW).
Furthermore, a representative from China’s PV Industry Association (CPIA) indicated that during Q3/4 perhaps another 5 to 10 GW could be installed, thus pushing the 2016 total additionally installed capacity to an all-time high of between 25 to 30 GW.
Hence, China’s cumulative installed capacity may reach between 68 to 73 GW at the end of the first year of the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016–2020).
China’s overall guiding target could be as low as 110 or 125 GW compared to 150 GW planned until recently
Therefore, in light of this massive deployment, AECEA anticipates that the future market landscape and demand is bound to change. In the context of the pending 13th Five-Year-Plan for Solar Development (2016–2020) scheduled to be published in August or September as AECEA learned that the annual guiding target could be as low as 15 GW, hence the overall target by 2020 could be as low as 110 or 125 GW compared to 150 GW planned until recently.
However, not surprisingly for the time being relevant Chinese PV entities remain bullish even in the foreseeable future and estimated average installation volumes to remain above 20 GW through 2019.